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A snippet from the above National Geographic link -
"The potential number of Chinese people who could become consumers in the future is enormous," Mastny said. "Think about what that means in terms of availability of resources and the environmental impact."
Take cars, for example. In the 1980s there were virtually no private cars in China. In 2003 there were 14 million. In 2015 China will have an estimated 150 million cars.
"This is unsustainable," Mastny said. "We're not blaming China. It's just that if all the countries that are entering the consumer society try to emulate the patterns of the United States and other countries, clearly there is not going to be enough [resources] to go around."
I've heard that it would take 12.5 Earths to sustain human life if everyone on earth consumed as much as the average American consumes. It's happening folks.
Small groups of people have been screaming for alternate sources of energy for years. These statistics, if accurate, should bring about some change.
This is a very interesting topic. Everyone talks about the boom in Chinese economy, but usually from a market perspective. Personally, because I deal with mainland China, Taiwan and several other Asian countries that will be affected by the Chinese economy, I believe their progress will be slower as it related to clobal dominance. I believe this because corruption runs rampant through Chinese business and it will take a long time to clean it up. (Brazil and other Latin American economies have been micro examples of my theory.)
The point you bring up requires much more urgency on our part. Even with the corruption, the consumption of natural resources will continue to climb and will surely cause a global issue in a very short time. In fact, iron ore, natural gas and even oil is being purchased in very high voulmes in China.
Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please.
Many people "in the know" say that China may overtake the U.S. as the largest economy in the world by 2050. I for one do not believe that, even if I'm not exactly "in the know." That's because growth is seldom linear.
Anyhoo, there is another country that is almost as big rapidly growing in consumerism too - India. The idea that over 2 billion people are about to start driving is pretty scary. That's a lot of cagers for us to avoid...
Member #93, June 2002
'14 BMW R1200RT "Wethead"
'77 BMW R100/7 "Airhead"
notice how china has formed an 'alliance' with Iran....Iran has the largest amounts of natural gas, it has oil, and they need protection from the US. how convenient!
I for one support alternate fuel sources, but if push comes to shove...we're gonna need to move into hostile countries that control oil. Plain and simple.
Iraq has tons of it....and we're going to need it.
Scott
Black '50R
Long Island, NY
double-secret probationary lifetime member #311
My take on diminishing oil resources is a little different. I say use it up! The quicker we get rid of it, the sooner a cleaner and more sustainable source of energy will be developed! My prediction is within 25 years, our children will be amazed how we powered our cars as opposed to their fusion or hydrogen or solar or whatever powered vehicles!
So by my philosophy SUV drivers are doing their part to save the planet, rather than prolong our reliance on oil. Me, I will let them while I drive something with better milege and save my $$!
How to build a tiny Sun, on Earth is a hugh technical feat. Once we figure it out though, the energy future will be much brighter. converting small amounts of sea water into large amounts of energy, with no waste by products is very promising. A project that many nations are working on together, they see the future also. For more info, you might check out this site. http://www.llnl.gov/pao/WYOP/Fusion_Energy.html
Don
Pretty interesting article in a recent "Economist" magazine about this. US economy is not very energy efficient, it will become much more so in the future, which will happen all around the world. In other words, market forces will most likely divert dissaster. There will be winners & losers as is normal.
They say we are living during a "bottle neck" period, where civilization will move from one period, poverty, environmental degradation, & non sustainable ecnomies, to a period stable population, wealth, & sustainable economy. The problem is to get from here to there.
If I remember correctly, the Economist says that by 2050 average Chinese & Indian will be about as wealthy as average current Swede. They forsee an end to crushing 3rd world poverty. Cars will be made from composite plastics to be light weight but crash resistant. Wind, solar, & tidal energy will be the big new sources.
The future is bright, I think we'll all need our sun glasses.
Reminds me of the Woody Allen movie Sleeper, when he wakes up 250 years from now after a botched operation, finds a VW in a cave all covered in grode and gung, reaches in, flicks it to life with that familiar whistling wheeze noise they made and says" wow, they really built these things.
Believe me, I wonder sometimes, while rolling along, who will be trying to convert my F650GS to pure alcohol in another 80 years, saying "wow, they really built these things."
That's the bright side of this kind of story.
The reality the earth faces is simple. The planet will go onward for millions and millions and MILLIONS of years into the future, and people, well, they'll have their little flash in time, 100,000, maybe 200,000 years and some virus or bug Mom Nature whips up to "stabilize" the dominant toxic species will show up, or just simple over grazing, if you like, will reduce the numbers to sustainable foraging again, like it was 50,000 years ago. Think MadMax eventually ends up Planet of the Apes, less the Apes, of course. This technologically supported over population simply cannot and will not be supportable. Comes down to square yards Vs cubic mouths. Add in as much "drama" as you want, oh no, it'll mean wars, it'll mean resource grabs, that stuff has always been part of the human existance. People don't change, they all want a piece of ground to themselves, a chance to raise some little ones, the biological basic programming. The upper limit is nearby, hopefully I'll be long gone before war comes to my house, and the rest of you'all are on your own. In the meantime, pass the beer and cheeseburgers, the NFL game is on...
